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Pirates have a nice problem with 8 starting pitchers

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Pirates have a nice problem with 8 starting pitchers

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a rare team with an abundance of starting pitching talent. Currently, the rotation consists of Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, Luis Ortiz, Martín Pérez, and Marco Gonzales. Jared Jones and Bailey Falter are on the injured list. In the bullpen lurks Quinn Priester. If Jones and Falter come off the IL, the Pirates will have a dilemma that would be the envy of every team in baseball. Let’s speculate on how it might be resolved.

Pirates have a nice problem with 8 starting pitchers

When the Pirates signed Aroldis Chapman through the 2024 season, it appeared they had created a lockdown bullpen to cover up weaknesses in their starting rotation. The opposite has happened. The starting pitching has been a strength and the bullpen has been inconsistent. The Pirates entered the All-Star break with a team-high 3.86 ERA and 1.276 WHIP. When looking at just the starters (and excluding starts by an “opener”), the Pirates’ starting pitchers have a 3.58 ERA and 1.233 WHIP. Now, a quick look at each starter.

The $77 Million Man

Skenes gets the attention, but it’s Keller, who signed a big contract extension this spring, who’s the leader of the staff. Keller is 10-5 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.251 WHIP. You could argue that Keller should have been at the All-Star Game with Skenes. His streak of 49 consecutive starts pitching at least five innings was the longest active streak in the majors. It was interrupted last Sunday by manager Derek Shelton’s plan to remove him after three innings so Priester could get some work done before the break. Since fixing some bullpen issues in 2022, Keller has been one of the best starters in baseball. Only an injury could keep him out of the rotation.

The Rookie Sensations

If you don’t know Skenes, you may have been looking elsewhere. He started the All-Star Game just a year after he was drafted. Skenes is the Pirates’ best starting pitcher, if not the best in baseball. He’s 6-0 and has pitched well enough to go 11-0 in his 11 starts. His stats are staggering: 1.90 ERA, 0.920 WHIP, 2.58 FIP, 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings, 6.85 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 34.9 percent strikeout rate, 5.1 percent walk rate. His ERA+ is 216, which I thought was impossible; it means he’s 116 percent better than the MLB average. He and Livvy Dunne have become to baseball what Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift are to football. If Shelton pulls him from the rotation, the protest at PNC Park will make the Boston Tea Party look like… well, a tea party.

And then there’s Jones, who made headlines early in the season and has pitched in Skenes’ shadow ever since. He became the fourth pitcher, and the first since 1983, to strike out seven in his first five career games. He’s 5-6 with a 3.56 ERA. Like most of the Pirates’ starting pitchers, his record hasn’t improved due to a lack of support from the offense, defense and bullpen. His ERA+ is 115 and his WHIP is 1.110. If he leaves the IL, his spot in the rotation will be waiting for him.

Shelton can occasionally skip these rookies’ turns to spare their arms. Whether that actually helps is anyone’s guess. Jones went on the IL in his next start after being skipped.

The surprising left

After becoming a surprise addition to the rotation and pitching well, Falter has given up 13 earned runs in 22 innings in his last five games. On June 24 at Cincinnati, Falter threw three perfect innings before giving up five runs in the fourth. Oddly enough, he blamed fatigue. He went to the IL two starts later. His 90 1/3 innings pitched are the most he’s ever thrown in the majors, but far from his peak when it comes to the minor leagues. Still, Shelton could relegate him to bullpen duty if he returns. This old-school writer thinks that’s nonsense, but what I think doesn’t matter. Then again, Falter has claimed to be tired, and he’s not one of the Pirates’ top starting pitchers right now.

The left wing veterans

Gonzales recently returned from a long stint on the IL and has picked up where he left off. The sample size is too small to make an analysis of his stats. However, he is crafty and moves the ball around, making him the type of pitcher who usually shines at the end of the season. The feeling here is that he should remain in the rotation.

On the other hand, Perez has been inconsistent. Overall, the picture is uninspiring: 1-5 record, 5.15 ERA, 1.623 WHIP, 79 ERA+, and -.01 WAR. He has major league experience in the bullpen, where he will likely end up unless he is traded. He wouldn’t fetch much on the trade market, but the Pirates could shed his salary and make room for more additions.

The rest

Ortiz is the one who complicates things, in a good way. After a couple of successful multi-inning relief appearances in bullpen games, he got a couple of starts. To push him out of the rotation now would be a gross injustice. In his three starts, he has thrown 17 2/3 innings and allowed just two runs. He has struck out 17 and walked one in those games. Ultimately, if everyone is healthy, the projection here is that Keller, Skenes, Jones, Gonzales and Ortiz will make up the rotation.

Poor Priest. When a guy has minor-league options, he’s often the odd one out. His last two outings have been good, but probably not enough to save him from the bullpen or another trip to Triple-A Indianapolis.

Photo credit: © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

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