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Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (7/20)

Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (7/20)

Major League Baseball players had one day to shake off the All-Star Break rust, and now all 30 teams are in action on a loaded 16-game Saturday schedule thanks to the doubleheader between the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves. Six of the 16 games are divisional matchups, so there will be plenty of familiarity between the pitchers and their opponents in many cases.

Read on for our best MLB player tips for Saturday.

Saturday’s Top MLB Player Prop Betting Picks

Let’s take a look at our best MLB player tips for Saturday’s games.

(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Corey Seager on RBIs (+165)

Corey Seager entered Friday on fire through 11 games in July, posting the best numbers in all slash line categories (.333/.417/.667) among qualified Texas Rangers hitters. Seager faces Baltimore Orioles right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, who has struggled with six or more earned runs allowed in two of his last five starts. The optimistic approach would be to say Rodriguez has allowed two or fewer runs in 12 of 17 starts, nine of which have been quality starts, while 47 percent of his runs allowed on the season have come from three poor starts. He could be in for another tough outing today, however, as Texas ranks third in BABIP (.400) in home games in July, and in the top seven in OPS and wRC+ in that split.

Seager had multiple RBIs in three of the seven games leading up to the All-Star Break, so we wouldn’t scare anyone away from backing his chances to have two or more RBIs at +500 odds for an even bigger payday. And while Texas gave up the team total under in 25 of its last 40 home games yesterday, we still expect Seager to drive in at least one run even if the Rangers’ offense is limited tonight.


Brayan Bello Under 4.5 strikeouts (+110)

Two starts ago, Bello became the first Red Sox pitcher to strike out 11 batters in the first four innings of a game in the division era (since 1969), according to Sarah Langs of the MLBBello made the Oakland Athletics miss 23 times, a personal best. His slider (28% SWK) and changeup (45.5% SWK) were his most effective pitches.

The bettors were right to sell high on Bello, though, as his slider and changeup yielded 13.8% and 20.9% SWK in that start, while Oakland has the second-highest strikeout rate (26.9%) against right-handed pitchers this year while ranking in the bottom four in batting average and OPS in that split. He followed that performance with a three-strikeout outing against the Kansas City Royals, as they proved to be every bit as annoying as their 19.1% strikeout rate suggested. The Dodgers are slightly worse with a 22.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, but that still puts them in the top half of the league, and Bello has made three starts against top-five offenses (in terms of runs scored) and struck out five or fewer batters in two of them.


George Kirby Under 5.5 strikeouts (-120)

George Kirby has had excellent career success against the Astros, going 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in five career starts. Kirby has held current Astros hitters to a .212/.231/.222 slash line in 80 combined plate appearances, but his 21.3% strikeout rate over that span does not suggest he will exceed that projected total. The Astros have the third-lowest strikeout rate (18.8%) against right-handed pitchers this season, and while Kirby has recorded 18-plus outs in seven straight starts (with seven or more strikeouts in three of the last four), Houston is expected to take an aggressive approach at the plate.

Kirby had played against seven teams ranked in the top six in strikeout rate prior to July, and his strikeout totals in those starts were 2, 3, 3, 6, 8, 4, and 6. While the eight-strikeout performance against the Astros came on May 29, Houston also struck out him only three times in six innings on May 3. This is likely to be the biggest regular-season game in which Kirby will play with the top spot on the line, and we expect his nerves to get the better of him against a red-hot opponent, as the Astros have lost 10 games against the Mariners since June 19.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.