Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals Pick for 20-07-2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Data

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Location: National Park
• Starting pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo – Red
  • MacKenzie Gore – Subjects

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals odds

Implied Win % in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for bettors to measure the likelihood of an event based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the probability of a team winning a match or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds in Game 2 of their series at Nationals Park on July 20, 2024. Both teams are coming off below-average seasons, with the Nationals holding a 45-53 record and the Reds slightly better at 47-51. In last night’s series opener, the Nationals came up short, adding another loss to their challenging season.

Washington sends MacKenzie Gore to the mound, who is 6-8 with a 4.01 ERA this season. Despite this, Gore’s 3.07 FIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could see improvement. He’s a high-strikeout pitcher (26.7 K%) and will be facing a Reds lineup that ranks 6th in strikeouts, potentially giving him the edge. THE BAT X, MLB’s leading projection system, projects Gore to pitch 5.5 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs. However, his projections also suggest he’ll struggle with control, allowing 4.6 hits and 2.0 walks.

The Reds will look to counter with Nick Lodolo, who has been effective this season, going 8-3 with a 3.33 ERA. However, his 3.93 xFIP suggests he’s been lucky and could be on the decline. Lodolo is expected to pitch 5.6 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs. Despite his solid ERA, he’s also expected to struggle with control, allowing 5.3 hits and 1.4 walks.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 26th in MLB according to our Advanced Power Rankings, but they fare better in team batting average (19th) and stolen bases (3rd). Their power numbers are lacking, ranking 29th in home runs. In contrast, the Reds offense ranks 16th, with strengths in home runs (14th) and stolen bases (1st), though they struggle in batting average (26th).

The total runs are set at 8.5, which reflects an average offensive output from both teams. Betting markets give both teams an implied 50% chance of winning, which suggests a close game. The Nationals’ bullpen woes (29th) could be a deciding factor, especially if the game is tight late in the game.

Given these matchups, the slight edge goes to the Reds, especially if Lodolo can continue his strong season and the Nationals continue to struggle both offensively and in the bullpen. However, Gore’s potential for a comeback performance makes this an attractive matchup to watch.

Short summary of Cincinnati Reds:

It may surprise you, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. However, Nick Lodolo has used his fastball a lot this year, using it 55.7% of the time, which puts him in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts. Pitchers who rely too heavily on fastballs are often less effective than they would otherwise be.

Spencer Steer’s average exit speed has been dropping lately, with his 88.3 mph seasonal EV dropping to 79.2 mph in the past week.

• If you hit the ball hard, you are more likely to hit a home run or have the ball land in fair territory before a fielder can get to it.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Stuart Fairchild, Rece Hinds).

• Teams with multiple batters with high strikeouts make it much easier for the opponent to score strikeouts

Quick shots of the Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore is hitting 95.8 mph fastball this year, a big 1.4 mph improvement from last season’s 94.4 mph.

• Velocity is a key component of fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs. A pitcher who improves his velocity will likely produce better results.

Harold Ramirez has had little luck this year, posting a wOBA of .260 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) projecting his true talent level at .307 — a difference of .047.

• Players who underperform can be expected to underperform in the future. This can create value at prop Overs if the lines are weighing too heavily on the unfortunate, underperforming performance to date.

According to the industry-leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen ranks as the second-worst of all MLB teams.

• Most gamblers only look at the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen actually makes the opposing team an easier opponent and leads to more runs in a game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have reached the Run Line in 23 of their last 39 home games (+6.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have reached the Run Line in 50 of their last 86 games (+9.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jacob Young has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 41 games (+8.15 Units / 19% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final score: Cincinnati Reds 4.31 vs. Washington Nationals 4.05

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