1 Reason All 12 Open Championship Contenders Can Win

TROON, Scotland — Scottie Scheffler’s ability to make golf look easy is making him a very wealthy man.

But on Saturday at the Open Championship, even he couldn’t escape the truth: the Golf was damn difficult.

“I think that was probably the toughest nine holes I’ll ever play,” he said Saturday night, after rain and gale-force winds nearly turned the last major golf championship on its head. “I shouldn’t say ever, but it’s definitely the toughest I’ve played.”

Scheffler wasn’t alone in his criticism. The usually cheerful Justin Rose admitted he was starving, dehydrated and generally miserable when he reached the press room Saturday night. It had been raining and blowing so hard on the course that he hadn’t had time to stop for water or food.

“It was an absolute test of survival out there,” Rose said. “I think I survived pretty well.”

The slogan for this year’s Open Championship: Forged by nature — will find its way into nearly every story written about the Open on Saturday, and for good reason. On Saturday morning, the golf world woke up to the possibility of a runaway 54-hole lead for the second straight year, with Shane Lowry’s two-shot lead seemingly having no end in sight. As the opening groups settled into a tame, dry scoring bonanza, Lowry’s lead-building third round seemed all but assured. But then the rain started and a stronger-than-anyone-had-forecast wind blew in from a northwesterly direction no one had predicted, and suddenly Moving Day had turned into a heavyweight showdown.

By the time it was over, 36 holes had been erased from the Open Championship standings, a massive reshuffling of the contenders that suddenly included a brand-new list of people. People like Sam Burns, who was only seen on the televised show for 15 seconds all weekend because his inflated scores on Thursday and Friday knocked him out of contention, but who will play in the penultimate pairing on Sunday.

Lowry, who said he didn’t feel like he had three bad shots all day, hit six. He’ll tee off Sunday with Adam Scott, who started the day a dozen shots behind Lowry and said he didn’t feel like he swung all the way That Good.

This is what Forged by nature actually means: nature decides. On Saturday, it brought the lower regions of the field much closer to the top. And with that in mind, let’s go through all 13 players who will wake up on Sunday morning, either through perseverance or luck, with a shot at the Claret Jug.

1 Winning Reason for All 12 Open Championship Candidates

1. Shane Lowry (-1): He is the best prepared.

Lowry showed up at Royal Troon last week on a reconnaissance mission and played it in similarly miserable conditions to Saturday. He showed up at Royal Troon this week and it looked like he was the man to clinch a second major victory. His game seemed tailor-made for the linksland course and he didn’t let the conditions get to him.

He stumbled over the last nine holes in the worst weather on Saturday to move a handful of strokes behind the lead, but his game never looked good. That bad. On a level playing field on Sunday, all that prep work could shine in one of the greatest moments of his life.

2. Billy Horschel (-4): He’s the leader.

A 54-hole lead at a major is a 54-hole lead at a major. Billy Ho’s utterly masochistic approach to Saturday’s carnage — which may be the best two-under-200 score of his life — has put him in a prime position. After what he’s been through in professional golf over the past few months, he’s ready for the challenge.

3. Xander Schauffele (-3): Big wins come in large numbers.

Xander and Tiger Woods shared a moment earlier this week that Xander described as “welcome to the club” — meaning, the club of major championship winners. That had long been a thorn in Schauffele’s side, especially as the top 10s of major championships continued to pile up.

Now he has conquered the dragon and is looking out over a wide open Sunday field at the Open. We have seen players win big at the majors before and with how well he has walked the course this week, Xander is going to zero Unpleasant two in a year feels very achievable.

4. Sam Burns (-3): He has nothing to lose.

Sam Burns was five over after nine holes when he made the turn Thursday afternoon at Royal Troon — otherwise known as “game over” territory. After an early 65 to jump to three under for the tournament, he wakes up Sunday morning in the penultimate combination of the Open Championship. With his considerable arsenal of ball-slapping firepower, he’s a mid-60s number away from his first major championship, the one that so many who know his game say is absolutely in the cards. After the way his week started, we’d be surprised if it happens on Sunday, but not shocked.

5. Justin Rose (-3): He *earned* this.

Justin Rose’s career renaissance is one of the most quietly exciting golf stories of the past 12 months. Rosey snuck his way into the European Ryder Cup team and seemed set to power them to glory through sheer force of mind, but the T6 that followed at the PGA Championship proved it was no fluke.

He’s at the age where he needs things to find his way in order to compete, but his performance in Saturday’s outburst to stay in contention was nothing short of brilliant cunning. He’s right thereand after a career that has seen him lose so many close calls, Sunday may be the day he rides off into the sunset.

6. Dan Brown (-3): He’s the underdog!

Scoreboard watchers will see an unfamiliar name score a double-bogey at the end of the round, dropping him out of the final two groups, and they will assume he has a long way to go to qualify for the title.

Those who have watched Dan Brown this week know that that is not the case. He was determined and brave and smart and clever and all the other things that a player has to be to compete in a major on Sunday. If he was going to be out of the race, he would have done it on Saturday. I don’t expect that to happen on Sunday.

7. Matthew Jordan (E): We forgot about him!

A year ago, Matthew Jordan was the darling of the Wirral Peninsula town, chasing a major championship at his home club, Royal Liverpool. He was the darling of Open Week and the crowd’s favourite.

This year, he’s none of those things, and in some ways, that seems to help him. Unlike many of the other names on this list, Jordan didn’t jump into contention after one good round. He quietly put together three solid rounds to get him to par. The links style of golf seems to suit him, and players like him always end up in contention on Sunday.

8. Justin Thomas (E): If it wasn’t for that goddamn front nine on Friday!!!!

If Justin Thomas had shot a boring, uninteresting, even-par front-nine score of 35 on Friday morning, he would currently be leading the Open by 1/2. six shots. Instead he shot forty five at the front, and needed a full round of 67 on Saturday to get his score back to par after 54 holes.

He has the major championship pedigree, he has the cunning and the tool skills, he has five brilliant nines on this course this week. Two more on Sunday and he could be one of the most fascinating out-of-nowhere winners in major championship history… again!

9. Adam Scott (E): Recent form is on his side.

Like it, terribly recent form.

Last week at the Scottish Open Scotty shot a brilliant final round of 67 to come one stroke short of local hero Bob MacIntyre. He talked afterwards about how much fun it was to hit putts that of interest. It was a solo second place finish rather than a win, sure, but it said everything about his mental and competitive space at the moment. After a surprising Saturday, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him move up the standings.

10. Scottie Scheffler (-2): He’s Scottie freakin’ Scheffler

He’s been the best golfer on the planet for the past two years. He hasn’t made a single putt to save his eternal life this week. And he’s still just two shots behind the leader heading into Sunday’s final major of the year.

If you don’t think every other player on this list is going to bed tonight with one eye open and dreaming about Scottie, you don’t know what you’re in for.

11. Thirston Lawrence (-3): He played the round of the day very quietly on Saturday.

Lawrence shot six-under 65 on Saturday just as conditions were starting to change. He has the muscular build and great shooting ability. If the wind shifts again, he could suddenly be the driving force in the last few.

12. Russell Henley (-3): He’s *always* lurking.

In what is a testament to his ability, no player has ever quietly become the 20th best golfer in the world than Russell Henley. Henley is a shotmaker, he has a great short game and if the wind cancels out some of the advantage the rest of the field has off the tee, he could be a second straight surprise winner at the Open. Remember, this tournament is won by the short hitters more than any other.

James Colgan

Golf.com Editor

James Colgan is a News and Features Editor at GOLF, writing stories for the website and magazine. He manages Hot Mic, GOLF’s media vertical, and brings his experience in front of the camera across all of the brand’s platforms. Prior to GOLF, James graduated from Syracuse University, where he was a caddie scholarship holder (and an astute looper) on his native Long Island. He can be reached at [email protected].