MLB DFS: Top Daily Fantasy Expert Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel (07/21/24)

Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to cover another DFS slate that’s loaded with possibilities. We made it through the All-Star break and I’m not going to take it for granted that we have baseball games to watch. Let’s take a look at my favorite plays from today’s slate!

We have some excellent matchups today. The pitching mix is deep with alternatives, with reliable aces, midrange studs and valuable point plays, which will undoubtedly lead to interesting lineup decisions. I’ll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunity to get creative on today’s 11-game main slate.

This article will my Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/21/2024 and the slate locks on 1:05 p.m EDT. The lineup picks range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here . It’s also essential to keep an eye on injury news and today’s MLB starting lineups.

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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers – MLB DFS Lineup Picks

Joe Ryan vs. Milwaukee Brewers ($10,000 DK, $9,800 FD)

No other pitcher on this list has the same ceiling potential as Joe Ryan. In 19 starts this season, Ryan has an impressive 3.08 xERA and a 3.44 xFIP. Central to his success has been his ability to completely limit baserunners, giving up just a .221 xBA and a 4.1% walk rate, which equates to an impressive .278 xwOBA. That said, strikeouts are the primary reason we like Ryan so much for fantasy purposes. The 28-year-old has struck out 27% of batters this season, part of an excellent 27.4% career mark.

Joe Ryan’s 3Ks in the 1st round. photo.twitter.com/R4aMMleFTc

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 30, 2024

At first glance, a matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers seems like an unlikely matchup. They’re allowing an above-average 4.8 runs per game on the season and boast some intimidating names like Christian Yelich and William Contreras. That said, the Brewers have been in a slump for much of the past two months. They’ve held a subpar 97 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since late May, dropping to a 92 wRC+ in July, with a whopping 25.5% strikeout rate. There are ways this could go wrong, but don’t be surprised to see Ryan approach double-digit strikeouts in this game.

Andrew Abbott vs. Washington Nationals ($8.2K DK, $9.2K FD)

There’s no shortage of SP2 options on this list, but Andrew Abbott feels like the best combination of reliable and affordable. In 19 starts, he has a strong 3.51 xERA, down from a respectable 3.91 during his rookie campaign last season. Abbott’s success in 2023 has been highlighted by an excellent 26.1% strikeout rate, but his play has been a different story so far this season. He’s striking out just 19.4% of the batters he faces, instead relying on his ability to consistently generate weak contact. Opponents have generated a terrible 32% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 87.6 MPH against Abbott, which equates to just a .226 xBA and a .375 xSLG.

It’s no big secret that the Washington Nationals’ offense ranks among the league’s worst, allowing under 4.2 runs per game this season. Washington’s struggles have been especially pronounced against left-handed pitching, with a horrendous 80 wRC+ against lefties to go along with a .101 ISO and a .282 wOBA. Outside of Lane Thomas, most of the Nationals’ impact bats have come from lefties, and lefties have posted just a .254 wOBA against Abbott in his career.

Also Consider: Seth Lugo, Kevin Gausman, Brandon Pfaadt, Michael King, Drew Thorpe

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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders – MLB DFS Lineup Picks

Trea Turner – SS, PHI vs. Marco Gonzales ($6.3K DK, $4.3K FD)

Trea Turner is my favorite hitter to pay for today. He’s hitting .341/.389/.545 with 12 home runs, 12 stolen bases and a 166 wRC+. Turner is also coming off his best stretch of the season, sporting a 1.370 OPS since early July with nine home runs and an astonishing 276 wRC+. He’s also notoriously brutal against left-handed pitching, with a .568 batting average against lefties through 2024, part of a .506 career high. The stars are aligning in this matchup.

Trea Turner has 2,000 home runs in his last 12 games photo.twitter.com/qanO33WNSO

— John Foley (@2008Philz) July 19, 2024

Marco Gonzales will be a favorite pitcher to target on this slate. He’s limited to just four outings in 2024, and while his 2.45 ERA looks solid on the surface, the advanced stats are far less forgiving. Gonzales has a weak 4.89 xERA, down from 5.26 in 2023. His struggles include giving up a .466 xSLG, 43.5% hard-hit rate, and a .293 xBA. Right-handed hitters have batted .444 against Gonzales throughout his career.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 1B, TOR vs. Keider Montero ($4.8K Danish Krone, $3.4K FD)

Despite being the center of much trade rumor, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is having a tremendous season. He is hitting .293/.362/.472 with 16 home runs and a 134 wRC+. His success includes truly elite batted-ball metrics, such as a .299 xBA, .527 xSLG, 12.6% barrel rate, 94.1 MPH average exit velocity and a 55.8% hard-hit rate.

Keider Montero’s first taste of the big leagues has been a bumpy one. Through five appearances, he has a 5.47 ERA. While his 4.83 xERA suggests he deserves better results, Montero isn’t a highly touted prospect and likely won’t have much success in the majors. He has a 5.16 xFIP in 13 Triple-A appearances this season, up from a 4.86 xFIP in 2023.

Edmundo Sosa – 2B/3B, PHI vs. Marco Gonzales ($3.6K DK, $2.7K FD)

The Philadelphia Phillies are my favorite stack on the board today. Unfortunately, they’re also a very premium stack. For payroll relief, look to Edmundo Sosa as an excellent value play. He’s perfect as a one-and-done play or an affordable way to round out a Phillies stack. Sosa is hitting .279/.339/.459 with a 123 wRC+ this season. He’s at his best against left-handed pitching, with a .575 batting average against southpaws in 2024, part of a .468 career mark.

DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders – MLB DFS Lineup Picks

Juan Soto – OF, NYY vs. Shane Baz ($6.1K DK, $4.4K FD)

Juan Soto’s selection needs no justification. He’s hitting .303/.431/.571 with 23 home runs and a 184 wRC+ on the season. His advanced stats are elite in just about every capacity. Soto’s productive batted-ball stats include a .647 xSLG, .316 xBA, 19.3% barrel rate, 57.9% hard-hit rate, and a 94.9 MPH average exit velocity.

Shane Baz is a promising young pitcher, but beyond his above-average strikeout stuff, he’s struggled in the major leagues. Baz has a lackluster 5.23 ERA in two starts this season, up from a 5.00 ERA in six major league appearances last season. While the sample size is understandably small, he’s given up a .561 xSLG and a 15.6% barrel rate. Additionally, Baz has struggled in the minor leagues this season, posting a 4.12 ERA and a 4.97 xFIP in 10 starts at Triple-A.

Anthony Santander – OF, BAL vs. Andrew Heaney ($4.8K DK, $3.6K FD)

After a slow start at the plate this season, Anthony Santander has turned things around impressively. He’s hit 17 home runs since the beginning of June, bringing his season total to 26, to go along with a .826 OPS and a 131 wRC+. The switch-hitter has also fared well against left-handed pitching, posting a .473 batting average against southpaws this season, part of a .463 career high.

Ten years into his major league career, we know what we get from Andrew Heaney. He’s not great, but he’s not the worst pitcher either, with a 3.93 xERA and a 4.10 xFIP. While Heaney has done a better job of limiting power this season, right-handed batters are hitting .460 against him for his career.

Jesus Sanchez – OF, MIA vs. Christian Scott ($3.5K DK, $2.9K FD)

Jesus Sanchez has a decent .249/.296/.423 slash line with 11 home runs for the season. On the surface, there’s nothing to get excited about, but underneath is a player on the verge of breaking out. Sanchez’s impressive batted-ball profile includes a .494 xSLG, .266 xBA, 12.6% barrel rate, and a 51.7% hard-hit rate. Consider him an excellent value player at his price tag.

Christian Scott is a promising prospect for the New York Mets, but that hasn’t translated to the big leagues yet. In eight career starts, the 25-year-old has a mediocre 4.07 xERA and a mediocre 4.54 xFIP. His struggles include giving up a 10.7% barrel rate and a .437 xSLG. Left-handed batters are hitting .532 against Scott thus far in 2024.

DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks

1. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Marco Gonzales

2. New York Yankees vs. Shane Baz

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