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Reds vs Nationals Prediction and Picks for July 21, 2024

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Reds vs Nationals Prediction and Picks for July 21, 2024

MLB wraps up another week on Sunday and one of the most intriguing games on the schedule is a battle between the Cincinnati Reds (47-52) and the Washington Nationals (45-53). Andrew Abbott gets the nod for the Reds, while the Nationals counter with Jake Irvin. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 ET from Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.

Reds lose third game in a row

All signs seemed to point to the Reds taking a step toward playoff contention this year. However, they haven’t quite been able to put it all together, resulting in a disappointing 47-51 record. Cincinnati is 8.5 games out of first place in the NL Central and 3.5 games behind in the Wild Card race. There’s still time to close the gap in the Wild Card, but this young team needs to come together. The oddsmakers have Cincy priced at +800 to make the postseason (-1200 to miss).

The Reds lost their third straight game on Saturday, falling 5-4 to the Nationals. They had an early 4-2 lead, but allowed three straight runs to take the loss. Justin Wilson (1.0 IP, 1 ER) took the loss in relief. Offensively, Tyler Stephenson led the way with a solo home run.

Andrew Abbott takes the ball for Cincinnati on Sunday, marking the 25-year-old’s 20th start of the 2024 campaign. The left-handed pitcher looked sharp, going 9-6 with a 3.39 ERA (27th) and 1.21 WHIP (42nd). Abbott is coming off one of his worst outings of the year, a 3.1-inning effort against the Marlins in which he surrendered five earned runs on seven hits and two walks. It was a no-decision effort in a game the Reds fought back to win 10-6. Cincinnati is now 5-0 in his last five starts.

Nationals want complete sweep

Washington is in a similar situation to Cincinnati, as it feels like they are on the cusp of becoming a playoff contender. They have a lot of potential on their roster, but it could be a year before this team is ready to compete, especially in the vaunted NL East. Currently, the Nationals are 17.0 games out of first place in the division and 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot. They are priced at +2500 to make the playoffs (-20000 to miss out).

The Nats earned their second straight win on Saturday, beating the Reds 5-4. Derek Law earned the win in relief, pitching 2.0 scoreless frames. Offensively, the late comeback was capped by an RBI single by Jacob Young in the 8th, giving Washington the lead for good. Kyle Finnegan (1.0 IP, 0 ER) slammed the door shut in the 9th, earning his 27th save.

Jake Irvin gets the nod in the series finale, and it will be his 21st start of the year. The right-handed pitcher has looked good, going 7-8 with a 3.49 ERA (32nd) and a 1.11 WHIP (24th). However, Irvin has two straight starts in which he has allowed six earned runs. The most recent was a 4.0-inning effort against the Brewers, in which he allowed nine hits and three walks in a losing effort. Washington’s 0-2 in its two recent starts.

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Best Bets

Full game side bet

Judgement:

This should be a fun Sunday game between two very well matched teams. Maybe that’s why the moneyline is so tight in this game (CIN +105, WSH -118). That said, I’m actually pretty confident the Reds can come out on top as short underdogs. I’m playing Cincinnati on the moneyline.

Both starting pitchers have had solid years, but Andrew Abbott has been the more consistent hurler in my opinion. He’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts, with a respectable 3.53 ERA over 43.1 innings. If we can get that kind of production from Abbott, Cincinnati’s bats should be able to handle the rest and get us into the win column. They’ve been on fire of late, which I’ll go into more detail about below.

Let’s go with the Reds.

Prediction: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+105)

Full game total choice

Judgement:

While I said both pitchers have been serviceable, neither has looked great in their recent outings. Before Abbott, he gave up five earned runs to the Marlins in 3.1 innings. Jake Irvin gave up six earned runs to the Mets on July 9, before giving up six more to the Brewers on July 14.

Getting back to Cincinnati’s offense, they’ve been one of the best units in the game over the past two weeks. Over the past 14 days, they’re fourth in Fangraphs’ wRC+ (130) and second in wOBA (.363). Washington has been solid over the same period, ranking 12th in both categories (112, .330). I can easily see the offense winning the day in this National League showdown, so let’s get the over with.

Prediction: Over 8.5 (-118)

Written by
Trent Pruitt, “Trent Pruitt”

Originally from Chicago, Trent has been an avid sports fan since he could walk. He played sports growing up and played rugby at the collegiate level at Arizona State University. Trent still resides in Arizona where he spends his days covering sports from a sports betting perspective. He fell in love with the analytical side of sports in his late teens and has been following the sports betting industry for over 10 years now! You can follow him on Twitter and Instagram for all his sports betting tips: @Trentbets, and he is one of the newest members of our Experts team.

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