Netanyahu’s trip to Washington comes amid Middle East catastrophe

The diplomatic achievement was given the grand title “Abraham Accords,” and its promoters hailed it as a breakthrough in civilization and the beginning of a new era — regardless of the fact that the two Gulf states had never been at war with Israel and already had substantial secret relations with the Jewish state. “This day is a turning point in history,” Netanyahu proclaimed, joined by Trump and top officials from the UAE and Bahrain. “It heralds a new dawn of peace. For thousands of years, the Jewish people have prayed for peace. For decades, the Jewish state has prayed for peace. And that is why we are filled with such deep gratitude today.”

The deals generated some lucrative business ties between Israel and the monarchies, and were matched by major US arms sales to the Arab kingdoms. But even as more Arab countries warmed to the prospect of normalization with Israel, the new arrangements did little to build peace in the context where it was needed most: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

That was likely intentional: Netanyahu, a longtime opponent of a separate, sovereign Palestinian state, saw in Trump a path to further integrate Israel into his neighborhood while putting the “Palestinian problem” on the back burner. Israel’s growing crop of Arab partners, wary of Iran and frustrated by the dysfunction within the Palestinian national movement, seemed content to go along with the process.

Netanyahu was forced out of power, but eventually returned to the helm of the most right-wing coalition in Israeli history. He appeared at the UN General Assembly podium in September with a map of Israel’s new connections in the region, labeled “The New Middle East”; any trace of Palestine or Palestinian claims was wiped from the map.

Then October 7th happened and the world changed. The war that followed the deadly Hamas militant group’s assault on southern Israel has sent the region into turmoil. Israel’s relentless campaign against Hamas has pulverized the Gaza Strip, killing tens of thousands and creating a vast humanitarian catastrophe. International legal action against Israel and its right-wing government has mounted: the International Criminal Court could issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant within days for their roles in the alleged starvation of Gazans; the International Court of Justice, the UN’s judicial arm, is hearing a case accusing Israel of genocide and separately ruled Friday that Israel must end its occupation of Palestinian land and dismantle its settlements.

That’s a political nonstarter for Netanyahu, under whose long tenure Israel’s settlement project has flourished and expanded across the West Bank. He comes to Washington this week for a controversial address to Congress with months of trauma and ruin behind him and a murky political future ahead.

A handful of Israel’s Arab neighbors, along with President Biden and his allies, have been trying to negotiate a ceasefire between the warring parties. Talks have not yet produced the ceasefire sought by Palestinians and much of the international community, or the general release of Israeli hostages sought by a grieving Israeli public. In private conversations, some American and Arab officials accuse Netanyahu—whose own position could be jeopardized by a cessation of hostilities—of deliberately blocking a deal.

“Netanyahu is under pressure from all sides. He has a coalition that is unhappy with him and (far-right) partners in Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir who are threatening to abandon it if he agrees to a ceasefire,” explained Michael Koplow of the Israel Policy Forum. “He has hostage families and the political opposition who are increasingly taking to the streets to demonstrate for a ceasefire, and a security service that is also strongly in favor of a deal to pause the fighting and bring living hostages home. Biden has pushed unconditionally for a ceasefire and a hostage deal, and Israel’s regional partners all want the fighting to have ended months ago.”

The wily Israeli prime minister travels to Washington to relieve some of the pressure. Netanyahu’s “primary directive is to keep himself in power, and he’s succeeding,” Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a veteran former U.S. negotiator, told me. He’s “coming here to use Congress and the White House as a pillar of support, to demonstrate his indispensability” to the Israeli public, Miller added, suggesting that Netanyahu was “trying to buy time.” Republicans, eager to stab an already beleaguered Biden in the footsteps, are likely to embrace Netanyahu and his defiant stance on war.

“What Netanyahu probably wants to achieve is to make it to the end of the month and into the parliamentary summer recess,” Neri Zilber wrote in the Financial Times. “The recess lasts until late October, during which it is extremely difficult to topple or replace a sitting government. If Netanyahu makes it that far, the earliest an election could take place would be in the first quarter of 2025.”

By then, there may be a new occupant of the White House, and Netanyahu likely expects a second Trump term to boost his own political fortunes — just as the first did. But the Republican presidential nominee has shown less enthusiasm for Netanyahu in recent months, while the Abraham Accords — Trump touted as his most significant foreign policy achievement — seem irrelevant in the current moment.

Biden, meanwhile, faces a revolt from the left over Israel’s war-making and the United States’ enabling of it. He has sought to enlist the Gulf kingdoms and some of Israel’s other Arab neighbors in an ambitious “day after” project for Gaza, under which a Palestinian technocratic entity would jointly govern that territory and the West Bank, Gulf reconstruction funding would flow to Gaza, and Israelis and Palestinians would re-engage in talks on a two-state solution.

As the war rages on and Netanyahu remains in power, even that vision of peace appears doomed. The Knesset, Israel’s parliament, voted Friday to reject the creation of a Palestinian state — a symbolic move that underscored Netanyahu’s stance ahead of his trip to the United States.

“As long as Netanyahu is there, there is no chance of any movement toward the ‘day after’ plan,” an Arab official involved in the talks on post-war Gaza told me, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press.

There is no “pivot of history” in sight, in other words. Which may be exactly how Netanyahu wants it.