close
close

7 Fantasy Football Post-Hype Sleepers

7 Fantasy Football Post-Hype Sleepers

Fantasy managers can have very short memories, especially when it comes to players who are underperforming compared to their draft slots. Taking advantage of values ​​that arise as a result of negative public perception is a beneficial part of fantasy draft season.

This article highlights some of those players experiencing a dip in the perceived value of Underdog drafts, thanks in part to the recency bias of their 2023 campaigns.

*Last year’s ADP reflects the final ADP from Underdog’s Best Ball Mania 4, while the 2024 ADP can be found in 4for4’s Underdog ADP Tool.

Quarterback

Trevor LawrenceJaguars

  • 2023 ADP: QB8, 6.02
  • 2024 ADP: QB14, 10.12

While his QB17 finish was a disappointment compared to expectations, Trevor Lawrence showed what we all hoped he would be for fantasy purposes starting in Week 11, when he moved from QB22 in fantasy points per game among guys with at least four starts in weeks. 1-10, to the QB6 in the same category for the final seven games of 2023. And that was without Christian Kirk for five of those games.

The fourth-year signal caller has the skills to be an elite fantasy asset, including a solid arm and some wheels, and this year he gets new weapons in the form of newcomer Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, plus a healthy Christian Kirk. Lawrence will be drafted as the QB14, but has a 5-8 upside if he can remain consistent in 2024.

Running backs

Rhamundre StevensonPatriots

  • 2023 ADP: RB10, 3.10
  • 2024 ADP: RB20, 7.12

It was a tough finish for Rhamondre Stevenson as RB30 in half PPR points per game last year, as he averaged just 51.6 yards on the ground and 19.8 receiving yards in the 12 games he played. Ezekiel Elliott has been replaced by Antonio Gibson in an offense without big playmakers, so there’s a chance Stevenson bounces back to become the zero-RB hero we all wanted in 2023.

The good news is that instead of a third-round pick, he currently costs drafters the final seventh-round pick and has the potential to surpass his current low-end RB2 status in a contract year.

Zach CharbonnetSeahawks

  • 2023 ADP: RB33, 9.09
  • 2024 ADP: RB42, 12.03

Seattle was a run-first, run-often team under Pete Carroll, but last year Zach Charbonnet was used in a more complementary role than expected during fantasy draft season. Charbonnet finished as the RB56 in half PPR and scored per game, but in the games he appeared in at least 61% of snaps (Weeks 11-13), the rookie saw 19.7 touches per game, which was sixth. among RBs, which translates to 9.7 half PPR points per tilt, which was RB24 in that time frame.

With a new coaching staff in place, it remains to be seen how tough the Seahawks will be, but we have to assume that Charbs will get more work in 2024 and put up better numbers than his current draft stock indicates.

Wide receivers

Calvin RidleyTitans

  • 2023 ADP: WR13, 2.10
  • 2024 ADP: WR36, 6.01

It wasn’t a complete disappointment of a season for Calvin Ridley in his one year as a Jaguar, as Ridley had a 22.5% target share and ranked fourth in the NFL in red zone targets, but it didn’t quite translate into his expected production. Ridley’s WR26 finish in half PPR points per game (11.3) ranked him as a fantasy WR2, rather than his WR1 expectations.

Now a member of the Tennessee Titans, he is part of a potentially heavier offense under new HC Brian Callahan, who also stated that Ridley’s role will be “very similar” to that of Ja’Marr Chase for the Bengals. That could be huge for his fantasy prospects, as Ridley would run more slot and intermediate routes compared to the mostly longer, low-percentage stuff he saw from Trevor Lawrence.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks

  • 2023 ADP: WR36, 6.11
  • 2024 ADP: WR45, 7.05

You’re not getting a huge discount on Jaxon Smith-Njigba compared to last year, but he leaves the boards nine positional spots later but only seven actual draft spots thanks to WR-thirsty Underdog start in 2024. JSN got off to a slow start in his rookie season thanks a wrist injury, but after Seattle’s Week 5 bye, he averaged 8.2 half PPR points per game as the overall WR40 in that time frame.

Smith-Njigba is primed for a sophomore surge in what should be a more pass-oriented offense under new Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb, and an aging Tyler Lockett isn’t hurting his situation.

Jameson WilliamsLions

  • 2023 ADP: WR56, 12.01
  • 2024 ADP: WR48, 7.11

This isn’t the case of a depressed ADP for Jameson Williams, as he’s being drafted five rounds earlier than late last summer, but he falls into the category of a post-hype sleeper for the second straight season. .

Williams only played in six games during his rookie campaign after suffering a knee injury in the 2022 NCAA Championship Game, but the hype was there and he was still drafted as a WR6 on most platforms but finished with just a 2.4 half. -PPR points per match as the WR135 in that category. Last year, the Detroit WR began a gambling suspension that was originally six games but was then reduced, and he was able to rejoin the team in Week 5. Williams was slowly softened and inconsistencies prevented him from becoming a reliable player. fantasy asset.

This year, Lions HC Dan Campbell labeled Williams as a “man on a mission” and the most improved, and he will have less competition for deep balls now that Josh Reynolds is no longer on Detroit’s roster. And as an added bonus, the Lions will play fourteen of their seventeen games in domed stadiums in 2024, which could help with the wind on those balls in the field. You won’t get a deal for Williams because he’s fairly priced as a WR4 right now, but there’s potential for him to overachieve.

Jahan DotsonCommanders

  • 2023 ADP: WR30, 5.12
  • 2024 ADP: WR48, 12.02

After a promising rookie campaign as the WR39 in half PPR points per game, Jahan Dotson was primed for a breakout year in 2023 with Eric Bienemy leading the charge, but he unfortunately fell short, posting just 518 yards on 49 receptions with a disappointing 10.6 meters per reception. Curtis Samuel is now in Buffalo, leaving plenty of volume for Dotson behind Terry McLaurin. There is also a new coaching regime, along with a fresh, very talented QB under center in Jayden Daniels.

With likely improved QB play, Dotson should see more opportunities for both volume and scoring opportunities, and he could end up closer to his 2023 ADP than his current 2024 draft capital.